HSBC trade team points to Asia and digital services as drivers of trade growth

Global trade is shifting towards regional networks and digital services rather than retreating, according to a discussion among HSBC’s Global Trade Solutions team reported by Trade Finance Global. The outlet said world trade expanded by 4.5% to 5% in 2025 and was expected to grow faster in 2026, despite concerns over tariffs and disrupted shipping routes.

The discussion, which TFG placed at the 2026 Sibos conference in Miami, highlighted Asia’s role in that shift. Gahlaut described a more regional, technology-driven form of globalisation, with trade within Asia growing at twice the worldwide rate and representing 60% of the continent’s total trade. According to the report, future technologies contributed roughly 80% of global trade growth, supported by demand for semiconductors, data-centre equipment and other inputs used in the technology build-out.

Supply-chain decisions nevertheless vary by industry. Discussing the Americas, Menon said strategic sectors such as semiconductors were moving manufacturing into the US, while businesses more dependent on scale and cost were adding capacity in markets including Mexico. Nearshoring, friendshoring and reshoring were all under consideration, but strengthening supply chains required capital that companies could not deploy without limits.

Those changing routes also present a challenge for banks seeking to lower costs and focus on domestic markets. Bhagwadia described customer-led partnerships between banks as a way to support businesses pursuing new trade corridors, bridging the gap between lenders’ geographical priorities and their clients’ cross-border needs.

Services are another major source of change. Ramachandran noted that services account for roughly 70% of the world economy but only about 30% of global trade, with goods making up the balance in each case. TFG reported that services trade was expanding at twice the pace of goods trade, principally because of digital services. The discussion also examined artificial intelligence: Elliott characterised it as a broadly applicable technology requiring banks to reconsider how they deliver their offerings internally. As information and data analysis become more accessible, the team emphasised banks’ role as trusted partners.